Introduction
The University of Bohol (UB), through its Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives, undertook the conduct of a province-wide local poll survey from April 22 to 28, 2025, in anticipation of the upcoming May 12 local elections. This internally funded, non-partisan research is grounded in the University’s dedication to promoting active citizenry, participatory democracy, and evidence-informed governance. The poll survey aims to give empirical insights that capture the stakeholders’ ability to react more successfully to community issues by methodically gathering local voters’ opinions, preferences, and concerns.
Trained volunteers from the university personnel actively participated in the poll. These volunteers were involved in the orientation and capacity-building sessions covering field data collecting techniques, survey methodology, and research ethics orientation, including real-world simulations. This methodical planning guaranteed consistency in data collection over several sampling sites, ethical compliance, and methodological rigor.
This project best illustrates the university’s proactive academic orientation that supports democratic processes through education, scholarship, and direct civic participation. Therefore, the poll survey provides an unbiased, research-based forum for raising the voice of the voters and advancing local inclusive, responsible, and open government. It supports UB’s institutional aim of using ethical leadership and transforming education to produce socially conscious people and strong communities.
Objectives:
To assess the priority issues and concerns of local voters that influence their electoral choices;
To examine voter awareness, trust, and perceptions regarding political candidates, including levels of satisfaction with incumbent leaders.
To determine the voting preferences of the electorate in the province in relation to the May 12, 2025 local elections, including preferred candidates for key local positions.
Research Methodology
Design. This study employed a quantitative-descriptive survey design to assess voter perceptions across the province of Bohol. The design was selected to facilitate the systematic collection and analysis of structured data, allowing for generalizations about the broader voting population. By utilizing a probability-based sampling approach, the study ensured that findings reflect the diversity of perspectives among registered voters in different congressional and legislative districts.
Sampling Frame. The Commission on Elections (COMELEC), provincial and city offices provided the official list of the number of registered voters that was the basis for the sampling frame. This voter data enabled a proportionate allocation of sample spots across the province to ensure balanced representation.
| DISTRICT | No. of Respondents | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| TAGBILARAN CITY | 100 | 7.6 |
| DISTRICT 1 (excluding Tagbilaran City) | 100 | 25.8 |
| DISTRICT 1 (including Tagbilaran City) | 200 | 33.43 |
| DISTRICT 2 | 200 | 33.3 |
| DISTRICT 3 | 200 | 33.3 |
| Total | 600 | 100 |
For sampling purposes, Bohol was divided into four study areas: (1) Tagbilaran City, (2) District 1 (excluding Tagbilaran), (3) District 2, and (4) District 3. A total of 600 registered voters were selected as the sample, providing an estimated margin of error of ±4.00% at a 95% confidence level for the whole bohol,±7% for districts 1, 2, and 3; and ±10.00% for Tagbilaran City and District 1 (excluding Tagbilaran City). This sample size was considered adequate to capture differences in voter perceptions while maintaining statistical validity.
Sampling Procedure. The study used a multi-stage probability sampling method to ensure representative and impartial data. First, Bohol was divided into congressional districts. Municipalities in each district were divided into clusters based on their voting population size. Barangays were chosen from these clusters and classified as urban or rural to maintain geographic and demographic balance. Finally, houses within each barangay were selected via systematic sampling, with one eligible respondent interviewed for each household.
Study Sites
Key Findings
Governor Candidates
The survey result shows that Aumentado holds a consistent and dominant lead across all surveyed districts, particularly in District 2. Dan Lim’s support is concentrated mainly in Tagbilaran, suggesting a localized voter base. Leopando’s support remains marginal throughout. The margin of error for the entire province is ±4%.
Vice-Governor Candidates
Nick Besas is currently the leading candidate across survey areas. The high undecided rates, especially in District 1 (43.8%), without Tagbilaran City indicate that the race remains fluid and open to shifts, particularly if opposition campaigns increase visibility or address voter concerns. Besas is in a strong position, but the outcome will depend on how the 25.2% undecided voters lean.
Board Member Candidates for District 1
Arcamo, Lagunay, and Tirol are currently the strongest candidates for District 1 BM. Damalerio and Herrera could be contenders with help from undecided voters. Lower-ranked candidates face an uphill battle unless major shifts in voter preference occur.
Board Member Candidates for District 2
The polling indicates a clear advantage for Abapo and Villamor, while three other candidates (Estavilla, Garcia, and Boniel) remain in a more competitive, but trailing position. With few undecided voters, significant shifts in voter preference are unlikely unless major campaign developments occur.
Board Member Candidates for District 3
The data shows Tita Baja and DJ Balite tied as a frontrunner, with Greg Jala and Nathaniel Binlod as strong contenders. The remaining candidates are significantly behind and would need significant campaign gains or benefit from shifts among the undecided voters to become competitive. The relatively low undecided rate implies that most voters have already made up their minds.
District 1 Representative
In the overall, Yap has 40.9% and Chatto has 27.6%, however, with the margin of error of +/-7%, the lower limit of Yap is 33.9% and the upper limit of Chatto is 34.6% crossed. With this result, it can be construed that there is a statistical tie between the two candidates. This implies that there is a close fight between Yap and Chatto.
For the District 1 (excluding Tagbilaran) with the margin of error of +/-10%, the lower limit of Yap is 26.5%, the upper limit of Chatto is 37.9%, and Pizarras is 33.7%, those figures crossed, hence, there is a statistical tie among the three contenders.
District 2 Representative
VanVan Aumentado is the clear front-runner. This indicates strong dominance in the race. Modesto Membreve faces a significant gap that would be very difficult to overcome without a major shift in voter sentiment.
District 3 Representative
Alexie Tutor is the clear front-runner, with more than four times the support of her opponent. This indicates strong dominance in the race. Makdo Castañares faces a significant gap that would be very difficult to overcome without a major shift in voter sentiment.
Tagbilaran Mayoralty
The lower limit of Yap, Jane is 45.9%, and the upper limit of Torralba, Atoy is 44.9%, hence, Yap has a 1% advantage over Torralba.
Tagbilaran Vice-Mayoralty
Jala holds a strong lead over Veloso, with nearly twice as much support.
Tagbilaran Councilor
There is a statistical tie among the following candidates: Zamora, Borja, Budlong, Ringca, Cacho, Glovasa, Cabalit, Besas, Gonzaga, Inting, Butalid, Blanco, Salamanca, and Tirol.
